Tropical Storm Gustav is slowly leaving Jamaica and entering the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters continue to stress the uncertainty regarding Gustav's landfall in a discussion published late Thursday.
"Since track forecasts are always subject to large errors at three to five days, it is simply impossible at this time to determine exactly where and when Gustav will make final landfall," the hurricane center's forecasters said.
Still, "it would be no surprise if rapid intensification occurred and Gustav became a Category 4 or 5 hurricane by 72 hours," they said.
Obviously the speculation on any powerful storm entering the Gulf immediately turns to New Orleans, here on the third aniversary of Katrina. But the reality of the thing is that Gustav could hit anywhere from Texas to the Florida panhandle, and wherever it hits is going to have a really bad day, assuming that it strengthens. The thing about the warm Gulf waters is that the strengthening is almost inevitable in the absence of wind sheer.
It should be noted that the issue of the building development patterns of the US gulf coast is not going away. We talk about the idea of moving devopment back away from the coast, but then money talks and we permit the rampant building to continue. How many times do we have to go through this? Insurance companies in Florida are now backing away from insuring homes in high risk areas. In time, our eternal over-optimism (no, it is never going to happen HERE- it will always be somewhere else!) could be deflated by these repeated hurricane hits. But clearly it takes a lot for that to happen.
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